Jul 11, 2012
Rookie Wide Receiver A.J Green made a quick impression on his Cincinnati Bengals teammates and fans by catching a 41-yard touchdown pass from fellow rookie Andy Dalton. Green followed up that excellent first start with a ten-catch performance on the road against the Broncos.
The former Georgia Bulldog finished the season with 65 catches for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns, making him the top rookie wide receiver in 2011. His stellar first season in the NFL earned him a high ranking on most draft boards and a 20 ADP on Mock Draft Central as of the date of publication.
Closer examination of his stats reveals a few interesting points that fantasy owners should consider when drafting this spring. Although he finished with over 100 fantasy points, Green had a surprisingly low CPR rating of 13.3%, and failed to post a single elite game (top 5 ranking in any week) in 2011.
The CPR rating tool gives fantasy owners a way to easily gauge how consistently a player performs throughout a season. The higher the CPR score, the more consistently a player scored each week compared to other players in that position. For example, Calvin Johnson posted the highest CPR rating in 2011 with a 62.5%. At just 13.3%, Green was a top-ten performer just two of his 15 starts.
Consistent play is critical for fantasy football success, especially for players taken in the first five rounds of drafts. For this reason, I think owners are overvaluing Green in drafts this summer.
There is no doubt that Green is a talented player and could be a viable low-end number one starter. However, the fact that fantasy owners are drafting him above other talented wide outs like Larry Fitzgerald and Greg Jennings is somewhat surprising.